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Bond Market to Fed: Rate Outlook Is Too High

Traders expect Fed overnight rate to max out at about 3.3 percent during this expansion, lower than Fed's own estimate of 4 percent.

By Daniel Kruger, Liz Capo McCormick, and Craig Torres, Bloomberg | Updated on May 27, 2014

The bond market, unparalleled in predicting shifts in the U.S. economy over the decades, has a message: Interest rates aren’t going to rise as high as even the Federal Reserve’s own forecast.

From bond yields to futures and swaps, traders see little chance the economy will strengthen enough over the course of its expansion to compel the Fed to lift its overnight rate beyond about 3.3 percent. That’s less than the historical average of 4.25 percent that New York Fed President William Dudley said would be consistent with the central bank’s current target for inflation and compares with its long-term estimate of 4 percent.

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