Trade with China is booming, and more and more corporate management teams are considering using the renminbi (RMB) to settle transactions with Chinese customers and suppliers. In this trend, though, large companies based in the United States are playing catch-up. These are a few of the findings in HSBC's recent "RMB Internationalisation Study 2015."
HSBC talked to executives in 1,610 businesses in 14 markets around the world. Among all respondents, 54 percent said they expect their cross-border trade with China to increase over the next year (survey respondents from Chinese companies were asked about expectations for growth in their cross-border trade with foreign businesses). In the United States, that proportion is even higher: Nearly two-thirds (65 percent) of U.S.-based respondents said they expect their company's level of cross-border business with China to increase in the next year, up from 55 percent in 2014.
Because of anticipated growth in trade with China, and because the Chinese government continues to relax restrictions on the RMB, nearly one quarter of all surveyed executives (22 percent)—and 19 percent of U.S.-based executives—said their company's management team has discussed the RMB as a potential business enabler or opportunity.
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"If you're paying a Chinese supplier in U.S. dollars, you may be exposed to currency fluctuation at any time," says Kevin Quinn, HSBC's head of corporate banking for Upstate New York. "Likewise, if you're trading in euro, there's currency fluctuation that you may be exposed to. Utilizing the RMB and hedging in the RMB helps protect you against that potential exposure."
It may also give the foreign company leverage to negotiate a discount. Forty-four percent of all respondents think companies gain a relationship advantage if they offer to do business in the Chinese currency. And close to two-thirds of respondents located in and around China feel the RMB gives a foreign business a relationship advantage. (See Figure 1, at right.) "There absolutely are opportunities to deepen existing relationships with customers and suppliers by utilizing the RMB," Quinn says.
Nevertheless, the study suggests that only 10 percent of U.S. businesses currently use the RMB to settle cross-border trade, vs. 17 percent of companies around the world. And fewer than one in five U.S.-based companies that aren't currently using the RMB (18 percent) expect to start using the currency for cross-border trade in the foreseeable future. That's an almost 20 percent drop (4 percentage points) from HSBC's 2014 survey, and it's well under the global average of 27 percent. (See Figure 2, on page 2.)
"One of the reasons is that the dollar is strengthening," Quinn says. "The placement of the U.S. dollar as the world's leading global currency of trade also factors in. It's very easy for U.S. companies to rely on the fact that the U.S. dollar is accepted on a global level without hesitation. And as the dollar strengthens, they're able to leverage that to buy more in the way of goods and services."
That's not the only reason why few U.S. companies use the RMB. "I think there's also a knowledge gap in the U.S.," Quinn adds. "The RMB has risen as a global currency rather dramatically in a relatively short period of time. It's now the fifth-most-used currency for global trade. If you went back to 2013, it ranked 13th, and if you went back further, it was well below that. Because it's still a relatively new currency to the world of trade, there is a knowledge gap around how best to utilize it and what processes to go through in order to use it."
Perhaps because of the currency's remarkably rapid rise, small businesses in the United States have been quicker to embrace the RMB than have large U.S.-based companies. The survey suggests that among U.S. organizations with less than $50 million in annual revenue, 12 percent used the RMB to settle trade in the past year. Among those with $50 million or more in revenue, 9 percent used the RMB within the same time frame.
"Intuitively, you might think larger entities are more sophisticated and perhaps more global in scope," Quinn says. "But smaller companies are far more nimble. They tend to be more entrepreneurial, and to move faster from decision to execution. And smaller companies are always looking for an opportunity or an advantage for their business."
The HSBC research indicates that the move toward the RMB will continue. Thirty-four percent of respondents (though only 14 percent of those from the U.S.) said they expect that within the next five years, companies will be using the RMB to settle trade deals that have no connection to China—in other words, deals where neither party is Chinese. "Early estimates were that the RMB would become fully convertible by 2017. We're expecting that things may move faster than that," Quinn confirms. "The RMB is being positioned to be a global currency. And anecdotally, we're seeing far greater usage of the RMB. We're strongly encouraging all of our customers and prospects to consider using the RMB, if they're not already, and to make sure they're RMB-ready."
Talk to your partner bank, Quinn advises, and look at the opportunities the currency presents for your business. "There are a number of different ways a company could utilize the RMB, including payment for goods and services, intercompany loans, additional cash infusion, or hedging foreign exchange exposure," he says. "The first step is for the company to determine what their potential needs are within China. They should assess their cash flow and then make a determination as to where opportunities might be to utilize the RMB to their advantage."
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