Donald Trump may have a point: the dollar is indeed strong. Judging from the Federal Reserve’s own trade-weighted dollar index, the U.S. currency is now around 7 percent above its four-decade average.

A strong dollar isn’t necessarily detrimental to the economy, but it may torpedo Trump’s vision to revive America’s manufacturing sector. Before his comments to the Wall Street Journal that the strong dollar is “killing” the ability of U.S. companies to compete, the 22 percent appreciation since mid-2014 had already worsened the trade deficit, while the full effect hasn’t yet percolated into the real economy.

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