Whether or not a border tax proposed by Republican congressional leaders helps U.S. President Donald Trump pay for his Mexico border wall, it would have a radical impact on global trade patterns.

Deutsche Bank AG economists Robin Winkler and George Saravelos have calculated the amount of trade with the U.S. that countries stand to lose if they face a 20% penalty at the border. Mexico is the obvious biggest loser, but Canada and Asian manufacturing economies including Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand would also be in line for a big hit.

"The magnitudes of the damage would be enormous, in our view," Winkler and Saravelos wrote from London in the research note published Wednesday. "We still consider border tax adjustment one of the key bullish risks for the dollar over the next year."

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