Russia is rethinking what counts as a haven asset as it duels with the United States on trade.Although investors usually seek safety in U.S. debt, Russia cut its holdings of Treasuries nearly in half in April as Washington slapped the harshest sanctions to date on a selection of Russian companies and individuals. In a shift Danske Bank A/S attributed to a deepening “geopolitical standoff,” Russia is instead keeping up its purchases of gold.“Some people ask whether the Russian central bank sold them to support the ruble in April, but it's about changing allocation as reserves continue to grow,” said Vladimir Miklashevsky, a senior economist at Danske Bank in Helsinki. “Rising U.S. yields have fueled the sell-off.”Russia sold $47.4 billion of Treasuries in April, more than any other major foreign holder of the U.S. securities, even as its reserves grew on the back of rising oil prices. Its stockpile of $48.7 billion is down from a 2010 peak of over $176 billion, ranking it only 22nd worldwide, according to data released Friday.By contrast, the central bank keeps adding to its gold hoard, bringing the share of bullion in its international reserves to the highest of President Vladimir Putin's 18 years in power. The Bank of Russia said on Wednesday that its holdings of gold rose by 1 percent in May to 62 million troy ounces, valuing them at $80.5 billion. In May, Governor Elvira Nabiullina said gold purchases help diversify reserves.With the geopolitical stakes so high, Russia may not be overly concerned about returns on its investment. Still, gold has underperformed U.S. debt so far this year, losing over 2 percent as the outlook for higher borrowing costs dimmed prospects for the metal, which doesn't pay interest. Meanwhile, after handing investors positive returns for the past four years straight, Treasuries have generated a loss of 1.4 percent in 2018.Considering the size of Russia's holdings, its move hardly made a dent in the $14.9 trillion Treasuries market. A bigger question is whether China—which owned $1.18 trillion of U.S. debt as of April 30—will follow its neighbor's lead.“China could do the same if the trade war gets too bad,” Miklashevsky said. “That tool has been used before. In Russia, it's more about keeping the money safe from sanctions because they need it for a rainy day.”

Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.

Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.

Your access to unlimited Treasury & Risk content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:

  • Thought leadership on regulatory changes, economic trends, corporate success stories, and tactical solutions for treasurers, CFOs, risk managers, controllers, and other finance professionals
  • Informative weekly newsletter featuring news, analysis, real-world case studies, and other critical content
  • Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
  • Critical coverage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
NOT FOR REPRINT

© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.