Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. (Photo: AP)
Lower for longer. That's been the Federal Reserve's approach to interest rates for quite some time, but today the central bank indicated it will be holding the federal funds rate within its current 0–0.25 percent range through 2022.
In a statement accompanying its latest economic projections, the Fed said it expected to maintain that range "until it is confident that the economy has weathered recent events and is on track to achieve its maximum employment and price stability goals."
"Recent events," of course, refers to the coronavirus pandemic that "is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world, inflecting sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses," and is expected to continue to hurt the economy.
The Fed decision was unanimous, and its statement was nearly identical to one released at its late April meeting, but it did deviate somewhat, setting a floor for its purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed and agency securities. The Fed noted it would increase its holdings of those securities "at least at the current pace to sustain smooth market functioning" and would "continue to offer large-scale overnight and term repurchase agreement operations."
In its economic projections, based on those of individual Fed board members and Fed bank presidents, the Fed projected a median outlook for real GDP of –6.5 percent this year, followed by growth of 5 percent and 3.5 percent in the next two years, respectively. Unemployment was projected at a median 9.3 percent in 2020, falling to 6.5 percent in 2021 and 5.5 percent in 2022. Core PCE inflation was projected at 1.9 percent this year and 2 percent for the following two years.
These projections "underscore that Fed will be keeping pedal to the metal for the foreseeable future, certainly through the end of this year," said Kevin Flanagan, head of fixed income strategy at WisdomTree.
That commitment "is a modest positive for stocks and a negative for the dollar," said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co. The Fed sees "lingering weakness in the economy," yet its 9.3 percent yearend unemployment rate projection is "significantly lower than the current 13.3 percent (and in the single digits)," said Kleintop.
Asked about that surprisingly low May jobless rate number in his press conference on Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said it was "nice to see" and may indicate the job market has hit bottom, but that remains unknown.
The S&P 500 index retreated on the Fed's move, then pared its losses to close at 3,190, down 0.53 percent. The 10-year bond yield, which had been rising for much of last week, finished the day at 74 basis points.
"The stock market needs something new to push higher," and it didn't get that today from the Fed, said Patrick Leary, chief market strategist at Incapital.
Investors had been speculating before Wednesday's Fed decision that the central bank might introduce new policy initiatives such as a definitive schedule for its securities purchases, such as a regular monthly purchase amount, or a policy of yield curve control. They got neither.
Powell said these possibilities were discussed by Fed policymakers and will be considered in upcoming meetings as the central bank learns more about the trajectory of the U.S. economy.
"We will do whatever we can, and for a long as it takes, to provide relief and stability and ensure the recovery is as strong as possible," Powell said.
From: ThinkAdvisor
Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.
Your access to unlimited Treasury & Risk content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:
- Thought leadership on regulatory changes, economic trends, corporate success stories, and tactical solutions for treasurers, CFOs, risk managers, controllers, and other finance professionals
- Informative weekly newsletter featuring news, analysis, real-world case studies, and other critical content
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.
Bernice Napach
Bernice Napach is a senior writer at ThinkAdvisor covering financial markets and asset managers, robo-advisors, college planning and retirement issues. She has worked at Yahoo Finance, Bloomberg TV, CNBC, Reuters, Investor's Business Daily and The Bond Buyer and has written articles for The New York Times, TheStreet.com, The Star-Ledger, The Record, Variety and Worth magazine. Bernice has a Bachelor of Science in Social Welfare from SUNY at Stony Brook.
