The Federal Reserve is casting a long shadow over the world's biggest bond market, derailing a classic recovery trade and underscoring how an era of central-bank intervention will reverberate for some time to come.
The mere hint that the Fed may take additional steps to hold down long-term rates is causing Treasury traders to scale back so-called "steepener" bets—bets that longer-term debt will underperform shorter-dated obligations, widening the yield spread between the maturities. It's a tried-and-true strategy that has generated big profits over the years as economic rebounds pushed yields higher. Barclays Plc is keeping a lid on the size of its positions. Incapital is using options, rather than actual bonds, for a hedged—and more cautious—riff on the trade. And Nick Maroutsos of Janus Henderson Investors says some "could get flattened" by the wager.
It's the latest example of how the Fed's outsized presence in markets, which began with the 2008 financial crisis and shows no signs of ending, is distorting traditional trading strategies: It's squelching volatility, adding fuel to a record-setting advance in stocks, leaving credit markets priced to perfection, and curbing Treasury yields at levels that no longer fully reflect market sentiment or investors' belief in the economy.
Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.
Your access to unlimited Treasury & Risk content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:
- Thought leadership on regulatory changes, economic trends, corporate success stories, and tactical solutions for treasurers, CFOs, risk managers, controllers, and other finance professionals
- Informative weekly newsletter featuring news, analysis, real-world case studies, and other critical content
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.