Most Economists Now See U.S. Recession Odds at 50% or Less
And more than a quarter of surveyed economists think the likelihood of a recession in the next year is below 26%.
A strong majority of business economists now say the odds of the United States entering a recession in the next 12 months are 50 percent or less, according to a National Association for Business Economics (NABE) survey.
Some 71 percent of respondents reported such an outlook in results of the poll, published Monday. That marks a sharp turnaround from NABE’s survey in April, which showed an almost even split between those who were forecasting a downturn and those who were not.
More than one in four respondents in the July survey put the chance of a recession in the next year at 25 percent or less.
Ongoing strength in the labor market and a pullback in key consumer price metrics have helped fuel the shift in sentiment. While economists have in recent months repeatedly altered their forecasts for when a potential recession may begin, the NABE survey results suggest many may now be changing their minds altogether on the inevitability of one.
A greater share of survey respondents, who are employed at firms across a number of industries, reported improved profit margins at their companies, and an increased share also said they were passing some or all of recent cost increases on to consumers.
Inflation-related metrics were mixed. A majority of respondents reported that wages were unchanged at their companies in the second quarter, but 49 perent reported rising prices in that period—up from 40 percent in the April poll. A greater share of panelists also expect prices to rise in the next three months.
The survey reflects responses from 52 NABE members collected between June 30 and July 12.
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