Refinancing Risk on the Rise
Nearly $1.3 trillion of blue-chip notes are coming due between 2024 and 2028, creating risk in the Fed’s higher-for-longer rate environment.
Blue-chip companies’ refinancing risks have climbed to a 13-year high, as near-term maturities close in amid the higher-for-longer interest rate outlook, according to Moody’s Investors Service.
“Maturities within our five-year scope rose amid higher issuance and shifted earlier in that window, with companies opting for shorter tenors and high rates dissuading refinancing,” credit analysts including Ignacio Rasero said in a note. Nearly $1.3 trillion of notes from blue-chip firms are coming due between 2024 and 2028, according to the note.
The share of maturities within the first three years of Moody’s five-year scope increased to 61 percent, compared with 58 percent last year, pushing refinancing risk earlier. Companies seeking to refinance will continue to face higher funding burdens, as stubborn inflation is keeping benchmark rates elevated, according to Moody’s.
“Average investment-grade rates as of September are up 183 basis points [bps] against a 10-year rolling average,” Rasero wrote. “Still, we expect investment-grade companies to maintain good bond market access and to have sufficient cash flow to absorb higher interest costs.”
Spreads for high-grade credit are only about 1 bps wider than the 2022 average, reflecting an improvement in economic sentiment. Additionally, spreads are 10 bps tighter for Baa3-rated companies, the riskiest blue-chip borrowers.
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