Risk of U.S. Shutdown Drops

The odds of a November 18 U.S. government shutdown diminished Tuesday as House Speaker Mike Johnson gained more Democratic support for his interim funding plan.

Representative Pramila Jayapal, who leads the largest House Democratic caucus, on Tuesday called the Republican speaker’s plan “a very big win” for her party, and Senate Majority leader Chuck Schumer said he is “heartened, cautiously so,” by the short-term funding proposal.

Johnson told reporters he’s confident the House will pass the bill.

The House plans to vote on the temporary funding plan Tuesday afternoon under an expedited process that requires a two-thirds majority for approval, a threshold that would require support from a large number of Democratic lawmakers. Senate leaders will need the cooperation of all senators to overcome procedural hurdles and meet the late Friday evening deadline.

Hardline conservatives have made clear that they will vote against the measure because Johnson didn’t satisfy their demands for immediate steep spending cuts or changes to immigration law.

Democrats are dissatisfied because the measure doesn’t include emergency aid for Israel or Ukraine and it threatens a two-step shutdown next year. But party leaders gave hints they will acquiesce anyway because the interim plan continues government funding at current levels.

House Democratic leader Hakeem Jeffries said party leaders are still “evaluating” the temporary funding plan and he expects to have “one or two more conversations” with Johnson before the vote.

The White House, which issued a harsh reaction when the bill was first made public Saturday, has since softened its stance, with President Joe Biden declining to issue a veto threat Monday when given the opportunity.

The Johnson bill would fund some parts of the government through January 19 and others through February 2, setting up the possibility of yet another shutdown deadline on Groundhog Day. “We are not surrendering, we are fighting,” Johnson told reporters Tuesday in the Capitol. “You have to be wise about choosing the fights.”

Johnson touted his plan as way to avoid a massive year-end spending bill that lawmakers would have little time to vet. “We have broken the fever,” he said, adding that his proposal is a “gift” to the American people.

Johnson’s maneuver echoed the strategy his predecessor used to avert a shutdown at the beginning of October, which subsequently provoked a successful revolt from dissident conservatives. Then-speaker Kevin McCarthy also relied on significant Democratic support to pass a temporary funding plan, which also stripped out hardliners’ demands. McCarthy even turned to the same expedited process.

The parallels stoked anger among some ultra-conservatives. Representative Chip Roy, a Texas Republican, called Johnson’s move “asinine.”

But after the tumultuous succession fight ignited by McCarthy’s ouster, and with Johnson on the job for less than three weeks, some conservatives suggested they would allow their new leader a bit of leeway.

Representative Warren Davidson, a member of the hardline Freedom Caucus, said Johnson’s job is secure for now because critics have little appetite to bring him down. “It’s a little early for that,” the Ohio Republican said. “There’s a lot of support for him personally, but it’s a really bad play call.”

Copyright 2023 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.