Treasurers Support Their Organizations’ Risk Management Through Uncertainty

It had been two years since the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP) last conducted its risk survey. Then, around the same time that the World Health Organization declared an end to the global health emergency in May 2023, the AFP team reached out to 408 treasury practitioners to determine where their organizations are experiencing the most significant risks and how they are responding to those risks.

The survey’s results highlight the areas in which treasury professionals have helped their organizations, as well as the strategies and methods used. The result is the “AFP 2023 Risk Survey: Treasury’s Role in Supporting Organizations in an Uncertain Risk Environment.” The survey was supported by Marsh McLennan.

Cybersecurity Risks Are the Most Challenging to Manage

On the risk management front, the evolution of technology brings with it a mixed bag of positives and negatives. In the win column, new technologies provide opportunities for risk control through better measurement and management, less imprecision, and increased efficiency. At the same time, emerging technologies serve as a primary driver of risk across organizations.

Half of the treasury professionals we surveyed reported that cybersecurity risks (e.g., ransomware, phishing) are the most challenging risks to manage. This is particularly true in the U.S. and Canada, and for companies with annual revenues of at least $1 billion.

Management of cybersecurity challenges has been exacerbated by the rise of technologies like generative artificial intelligence (AI). For example, generative AI allows fraudsters to greatly improve their language usage, eliminating errors that would formerly have given them away as illegitimate, such as grammatical errors in business email compromise (BEC) scams. Eighty percent of respondents to our survey said that their company’s cyber-risk vulnerabilities have increased alongside the increased sophistication of this type of technology.

Macroeconomic Risks Weigh Heavily on Organizations

Meanwhile, the risks that survey respondents expect to have the greatest impact on earnings over the next three years are macroeconomic risks such as the pace of GDP growth, inflation, and interest rates. The number of respondents concerned about macroeconomic risks has risen sharply since our last survey—from 36 percent in 2021 to 49 percent in 2023.

Further breaking down this response, we found that:

• 52 percent of organizations are currently exposed to greater uncertainty in earnings, while
• 53 percent of respondents believe their organization’s earnings will be exposed to more uncertainty over the next three years.

Neither of these data points comes as a surprise. Macroeconomic risks have dominated the economic landscape over the past year. Although economic conditions have remained strong, fluctuations in interest rates and inflation have generated a great deal of uncertainty.

And because many treasury teams are concerned about their company’s ability to remain profitable—possibly even viable—cost-cutting and expense-control measures have become mandatory. Sixty-three percent of our survey’s respondents reported that their organization has plans in place to trim costs and control expenses over the next year.

What is driving these plans? Fifty-nine percent of survey respondents said fears of a recession and other uncertainties in the economic environment are requiring them to cut costs, while 58 percent cited inflationary pressures.

Treasurers plan to implement cost-reduction measures by:

• Reviewing pricing of treasury, risk, and payment products (67 percent) and
• Seeking vendors that will offer them more favorable terms (50 percent).

Liquidity and Interest Rate Fluctuations Are the Most Challenging Financial Risks

Of the financial risks faced by organizations, liquidity was most frequently cited as significant, named by 57 percent of respondents. Smaller organizations (those with less than $1 billion in annual revenue) are more concerned about liquidity than are larger organizations, and those from privately held companies worry more about liquidity than do respondents from public companies.

At the same time, 53 percent of our survey’s respondents see interest rate fluctuations as a key concern. Interest rate increases are influencing corporate risk management in a couple of ways. Balance sheets have been impacted by the higher cost of funding, and income statements have been affected—on both the revenue and expense sides—by the higher cost of doing business.

Propitiously, liquidity and interest rate risks happen to be the two areas in which treasury is able to provide a significant amount of support to the C-suite.

A Seat at the Table

Two-thirds (67 percent) of our survey respondents said that maintaining access to liquidity is one way in which treasury teams can support the broader organization through these uncertain economic times. Further, 59 percent reported that their treasury function is able to maximize liquidity both internally and externally.

For 44 percent of organizations, the treasury team also provides a working capital review, by:

• Implementing technology to assist in the data around cash flows (43 percent), and/or
• Working with banks and vendors to improve cash conversion cycles (42 percent).

Respondents said their treasury teams also support the organization by shoring up working capital to protect against foreign exchange (FX) volatility, actively diversifying sources of liquidity, concentrating their organization’s partnerships with larger banks for services, and increasing their use of technology.

Worldwide, businesses are looking to treasury for support and guidance, and treasury professionals continue to rise to the challenge with agility and resilience. Treasury teams have demonstrated their dependability time and time again over the past three years, helping to ensure that they have a seat at the table of corporate decision-making.

Tom Hunt, CTP, is the director of treasury and payments services for the Association for Financial Professionals (AFP). Hunt is the staff subject matter expert on bank relationship management, cash management, and treasury technology. He is in charge of AFP’s Treasury Advisory Group, the member committee dedicated to meeting the needs of the profession and helping keep members current on developing topics.

These are just a few of the highlights of the “AFP 2023 Risk Survey: Treasury’s Role in Supporting Organizations in an Uncertain Risk Environment.” Click here for more information and insights.