Is Unemployment Uptick a Sign of Trouble?

Unemployment is close to triggering a recession indicator that has a perfect track record over the last half-century.

By Augusta Saraiva | August 02, 2024 at 09:18 AM

Photo: Commuters during the morning rush hour at the Fulton Center subway station in New York City on July 30, 2024.

Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.

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News

1 Another Pension Plan Risk-Transfer Lawsuit: Lumber Firm Sued over Its $1.5 Billion Transfer to Athene Annuity

2 Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation

3 Fed Lowers Interest Rates by a Quarter Point

4 Fabricating a Treasury Function from Scratch to Support an $18 Billion Business

5 U.S.–Euro Rates Gap Is Set to Widen Again

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Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation

By Craig Torres | December 19, 2024

Policymakers don’t expect to reach their 2% inflation goal until 2027, so “from here on out, it is going to be much harder to get rate cuts without much further improvement on inflation.”

Fed’s Focus Has Returned Firmly to Inflation

Fed Lowers Interest Rates by a Quarter Point

By Amara Omeokwe | December 18, 2024

However, officials reduced their expected number of rate cuts for next year from four to two.

Fed Lowers Interest Rates by a Quarter Point

U.S.–Euro Rates Gap Is Set to Widen Again

By Catarina Saraiva | December 16, 2024

In his first term, Trump bashed the Fed for allowing higher interest rates in the U.S. vs. Europe to drive up the dollar and hurt exports. Next year will likely bring more of the same, as the U.S. economy remains considerably stronger, meaning rates here will likely fall more slowly than in the Eurozone.

U.S.–Euro Rates Gap Is Set to Widen Again

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