Photo: Commuters during the morning rush hour at the Fulton Center subway station in New York City on July 30, 2024. Commuters during the morning rush hour at the Fulton Center subway station in New York City on July 30, 2024.

Predicting a labor-market downturn was never an easy task. But unique post-pandemic dynamics are making it even harder for economists to determine whether a recent uptick in the unemployment rate is signaling trouble ahead.

Monthly employment data due Friday will probably add fuel to the debate. Unemployment has risen in each of the last three months and is now close to triggering a recession indicator developed by former Federal Reserve economist Claudia Sahm that has a perfect track record over the last half-century.

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