U.S. Consumer Confidence on the Rise

U.S. consumer confidence rose to a six-month high in August as more upbeat views of the economy and inflation offset waning optimism about the labor market.

The Conference Board’s gauge of sentiment increased to 103.3 from an upwardly revised 101.9 a month earlier, data out Tuesday showed. The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a reading of 100.7.

A measure of expectations for the next six months rose to a one-year high of 82.5 in August, while a gauge of present conditions edged up.

Prospects for long-awaited interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, likely beginning next month, may help to further bolster sentiment and keep consumers spending. At the same time, confidence remains well shy of pre-pandemic levels due to a higher cost of living and, more recently, moderating job growth.

“Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic,” Dana Peterson, chief economist at the Conference Board, said in a statement. “This likely reflects the recent increase in unemployment. Consumers were also a bit less positive about future income.”

Some 32.8 percent of consumers said jobs are plentiful, the smallest share since March 2021 and the sixth straight decline. The share saying jobs are hard to get edged higher.

The difference between these two—a metric closely followed by economists to gauge the job market—also fell to a more-than-three-year low.

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What Bloomberg Economists Say…

“The slight improvement in confidence was overshadowed for a second straight month by deterioration in the labor market. We think the latter factor will be more important for the Fed.”

— Eliza Winger

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Central bankers and economists are closely monitoring developments in the labor market after Chair Jerome Powell said last week that the Fed doesn’t “seek or welcome a further cooling.” Powell acknowledged that the downside risks to employment have risen, while inflation risks are diminishing.

The report showed 31.5 percent of respondents expect lower interest rates in the coming year, the largest share since April 2020. Consumers dialed back inflation expectations as well.

Consumers are also less upbeat about the stock market, likely reflecting volatility in early August, Peterson said. A disappointing jobs report at the time triggered a $6.4 trillion global stock selloff, but markets have since recovered.

The report showed buying plans declined from the prior month for automobiles and major appliances. Homebuying intentions also remained weak on high prices and borrowing costs.

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