Economists Expect U.S. Inflation to Hit Fed’s 2% Goal Early in 2025
The recent survey also predicts that the federal funds rate will reach 3%-3.25% by the end of next year.
Economists see U.S. inflation reaching the Federal Reserve’s target early next year while the unemployment rate picks up slightly, closely following the central bank’s own updated projections released last week.
The Fed targets 2 percent price growth based on the annual personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, and forecasters in the latest Bloomberg monthly survey expect the gauge to average that pace in the first quarter. In August, they predicted that the metric would hit the Fed’s goal in the second quarter.
In tandem with last week’s interest rate reduction, Fed officials also published new economic forecasts. While those aren’t broken out by quarter, they show the PCE gauge averaging 2.1 percent in 2025 and ticking down to 2 percent the following year.
The Fed unveiled its 50 basis point (bps) rate cut and projections on September 18, and Bloomberg’s survey of 75 economists was conducted from September 20 to 25. Policymakers and economists in the poll see another half point of reductions by year end.
They’re also in agreement with their expectations for the PCE price index, which excludes food and fuel, and is the Fed’s favored measure of underlying inflation. Both see the so-called core gauge averaging 2.2 percent next year and dipping into 2026.
“Our forecasts are broadly in line with what the Fed is indicating,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING Financial Markets. “Nonetheless we certainly acknowledge that the jobs market outlook is concerning and the risks are indeed skewed to the Fed having to do more, more quickly.”
In August, the PCE index rose 2.2 percent from a year earlier, and 2.7 percent excluding food and energy, according to Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) data out Friday.
When it comes to the unemployment rate, economists and Fed officials both project a 4.4 percent average in 2025 before ticking down the following year. The jobless rate stood at 4.2 percent in August and is expected to hold steady in September ahead of government data to be released next week.
Economists project a series of interest rate cuts that will put the federal funds rate in a range of 3 percent to 3.25 percent by the December 2025 meeting. That represents 1.25 percentage points of cuts over the course of next year, whereas Fed officials penciled in 1 point.
While forecasters trimmed the odds of a U.S. recession over the next year to 30 percent, from 31.5 percent, the economy is expected to shift into a slower gear by the end of this year. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth will average 1.8 percent in 2025, after an expected 2.6 percent this year, while the Fed sees GDP growth holding at 2 percent from 2024 to 2026.
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