U.S. Industrial Production Declined in September
Thanks to an aircraft machinists strike, the Gulf Coast hurricanes, and the Fed’s restrictive monetary policy, output fell by 0.3%, after rising 0.3% in August.
U.S. industrial production fell in September, restrained by a decline in factory output that reflected a strike at Boeing Co. and two hurricanes.
The 0.3 percent decrease in production at factories, mines, and utilities followed a downwardly revised 0.3 percent gain a month earlier, Federal Reserve data showed Thursday.
Manufacturing output dropped 0.4 percent after a sizable downward revision in the previous month. Mining and energy extraction slid 0.6 percent, depressed by hurricanes Francine and Helene. By contrast, output at utilities increased for the first time in three months.
A strike by aircraft machinists held down industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percent, while the effects of the hurricanes subtracted a similar amount, the Fed said. Production of aerospace equipment tumbled 8.3 percent during the month.
Manufacturing, which accounts for three-fourths of total industrial production, has struggled amid high interest rates as well as uncertainty about the U.S. presidential election.
The Fed’s report showed weaker production of motor vehicles, furniture, and textiles during the month. Output of business equipment, while restrained by the drop in aircraft, was also held back by weaker production of industrial and information processing equipment.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Industrial production (month-over-month) | -0.3% | -0.2% |
| Manufacturing output (month-over-month) | -0.4% | -0.1% |
The Institute for Supply Management’s latest measure of factory activity shrank in September for a sixth month, reflecting weak orders and declining employment. The United States has lost 34,000 manufacturing jobs in the past two months, and the number of factory workers on payrolls now stands at a two-year low, government data show.
U.S. producers are also contending with tepid export markets and higher borrowing costs that have restrained factory output. Domestic consumer demand, however, remains solid. That helped boost consumer goods production for a second month.
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What Bloomberg Economists Say…
“Hurricane Helene presented a downside risk to September’s industrial-production data, but the actual downside surprise was due more to restrictive monetary policy than weather. Paired with downward revisions to the August data, we can see monetary policy still weighing on the more interest-sensitive sectors in the economy.”
— Stuart Paul
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A report earlier on Thursday showed retail sales strengthened in September by more than projected in a broad advance. The sales figures likely cap another quarter of solid economic growth and consumer demand fueled by a hardy labor market.
The Fed’s report, meanwhile, also showed capacity utilization at factories, a measure of potential output being used, dropped to 76.7 percent. The overall industrial utilization rate eased to 77.5 percent.
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