U.S. inflation remained firm in October, underscoring the ongoing risks Federal Reserve officials face in trying to bring price pressures fully under control.
The so-called core consumer price index (CPI)—which excludes food and energy costs—increased 0.3 percent for a third month, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) figures showed Wednesday. Over the last three months, it rose at a 3.6 percent annualized rate, marking the fastest pace since April, according to Bloomberg calculations.
Economists see the core gauge as a better indicator of the inflation trend than the overall CPI. The headline measure rose 0.2 percent for a fourth month and 2.6 percent from a year before, marking the first acceleration on an annual basis since March. The BLS said shelter accounted for over half of the overall monthly advance.
The figures underscore the slow and frustrating nature of the battle against inflation, which has often moved sideways—sometimes for months at a time—on its broader path down. Progress may now be stalling as goods prices are starting to rise after a year of consistent declines and housing costs remain firm. A slight drop in car insurance costs was only the second decline since the start of 2022, giving consumers little relief.
The latest numbers, along with strong consumer spending and economic growth, will keep Fed officials cautious as they debate how quickly to reduce borrowing costs in the months to come. While the labor market is cooling, a retreat in inflation has been key to policymakers’ rationale for cutting interest rates.
“The inflation data over the past few months have not shown much additional progress, and the election outcome has raised new questions about the path ahead for price growth,” Wells Fargo & Co. economists Sarah House and Michael Pugliese said in a note. “As a result, we think the time is fast approaching when the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] will signal that the pace of rate cuts will slow further, perhaps to an every-other-meeting pace, starting in 2025,” they said.
The Fed will also have to contend with a new set of policies under President-elect Donald Trump, with companies already considering raising prices in anticipation of the higher tariffs he’s promised on imported goods. After cutting interest rates by a quarter point last week, Chair Jerome Powell said the election will have “no effects” on its decisions in the near term because it’s too early to know the timing or substance of any potential fiscal policy changes.
Metric | Actual | Estimate |
---|---|---|
CPI month-over-month | +0.2% | +0.2% |
Core CPI month-over-month | +0.3% | +0.3% |
CPI year-over-year | +2.6% | +2.6% |
Core CPI year-over-year | +3.3% | +3.3% |
Complete your profile to continue reading and get FREE access to Treasury & Risk, part of your ALM digital membership.
Your access to unlimited Treasury & Risk content isn’t changing.
Once you are an ALM digital member, you’ll receive:
- Thought leadership on regulatory changes, economic trends, corporate success stories, and tactical solutions for treasurers, CFOs, risk managers, controllers, and other finance professionals
- Informative weekly newsletter featuring news, analysis, real-world case studies, and other critical content
- Educational webcasts, white papers, and ebooks from industry thought leaders
- Critical coverage of the employee benefits and financial advisory markets on our other ALM sites, PropertyCasualty360 and ThinkAdvisor
Already have an account? Sign In Now
*May exclude premium content© 2024 ALM Global, LLC, All Rights Reserved. Request academic re-use from www.copyright.com. All other uses, submit a request to [email protected]. For more information visit Asset & Logo Licensing.