Kristalina Georgieva in October.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump’s tariff threats are already driving up longer-term borrowing costs around the world, International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva said. Uncertainty about the incoming administration’s trade policies is adding to worldwide economic headwinds and “is actually expressed globally through higher long-term interest rates,” Georgieva told reporters in Washington on Friday. That’s happening even as short-term rates have gone down, a “very unusual” combination, she said.
Trump, who’s due to take office next week, has vowed to slap new charges on imports from U.S. adversaries such as China, as well as allies including Canada and Mexico, raising concerns that supply-chain disruption will slow economic growth and push prices higher. IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas warned in October that tariffs and trade uncertainty could reduce global output by about 0.5 percent.
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The closing weeks of 2024 and first days of the new year have seen sharp increases in bond yields across much of the world and a surge in the U.S. dollar, as investors weigh the likely impact of Trump’s second-term policies.
“Not surprisingly, given the size and role of the U.S. economy, there is keen interest globally in the policy directions of the incoming administration, in particular on tariffs, taxes, deregulation, and government efficiency,” Georgieva said. The impact from U.S. trade policies will be most acute on countries and regions integrated with global supply chains, including many medium-size economies and Asia as a region, she added.
The strength of the U.S. dollar “could fuel higher funding costs for emerging-market economies and especially for low-income countries,” Georgieva added. She said that U.S. economic numbers, including Friday’s blockbuster jobs report, show that the Federal Reserve “can afford to wait for more data before making further cuts” to its benchmark interest rate.
The IMF has been warning since the pandemic about mediocre growth prospects for the global economy. In October, it predicted a 3.2 percent expansion this year, a forecast that’s due to be revised on January 17, when the fund publishes an update of its World Economic Outlook. Georgieva hinted that the overall number won’t change much, saying that the IMF sees “global growth holding steady,” but she pointed to significant divergences. “The U.S. is doing quite a bit better than we expected before,” she said. By contrast, the European Union is “somewhat stalling,” India is “a little weaker,” and China is facing challenges from deflationary pressure and low domestic demand.
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