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New research suggests President Donald Trump’s latest tariffs on imports from China could have a bigger impact on the American economy than official U.S. trade data indicate. The impact, according to a study from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, will be especially severe if the Trump administration ends favorable treatment of so-called de minimis imports—or those valued at less than $800.

“U.S. imports from China have decreased by much less than has been reported in official U.S. statistics,” Hunter L. Clark, a New York Fed researcher, wrote in a blog post published today. “As a result, the recent tariff increase on China could have a larger impact on the U.S. economy than is suggested by official U.S. data on the China import share.”

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