An employee scans an item at a fulfillment center in Robbinsville, New Jersey. Photographer: Bess Adler/Bloomberg.
U.S. job growth steadied past month, while the unemployment rate rose—a mixed snapshot of a job market hanging in the balance of quickly changing government policy.
Non-farm payrolls increased 151,000 in February after a downward revision to the prior month, according to a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report out Friday. The unemployment rate rose to 4.1 percent.
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Today’s report is the latest evidence that the labor market is softening, with more people permanently out of work, fewer workers on federal government payrolls, and a jump in those working part-time for economic reasons. The number of Americans holding multiple jobs climbed to a record of nearly 8.9 million.
That sets a weak backdrop just as President Donald Trump’s policies raise concerns about the broader economy. Inflation has proven sticky in recent months and consumers are starting to pull back on spending, which, if sustained, may lead businesses to rethink their hiring plans.
“The near-term path of policy is cloudy, and so the economy’s path is cloudy, too,” Bill Adams, chief economist for Comerica Bank, said in a note. “If the government stays the course on big tariff hikes and spending cuts, those policies will continue to weigh on job creation in the next few months, likely pushing the unemployment rate higher still.”
| Metric | Actual | Median estimate |
|---|---|---|
| Change in payrolls (month-over-month) | +151,000 | +160,000 |
| Unemployment rate | 4.1% | 4% |
| Average hourly earnings (month-over-month) | +0.3% | +0.3% |
Federal Reserve policymakers have indicated they would like to see more progress that inflation is sustainably easing—including in next week’s consumer price index—before they resume cutting interest rates. Coupled with high uncertainty around the Trump administration’s policies, officials are widely expected to keep rates steady at their meeting later this month.
The advance in hiring was led by healthcare, transportation, and financial activities. Government payrolls—which have been a key driver of payrolls in recent years—climbed at the weakest pace in nearly a year, while federal payrolls were down by the most since June 2022.
The payrolls survey references a week that includes the 12th of the month. In February, that week landed before most of the Trump administration’s government firings. March data will look “a lot uglier” as a result, Stephanie Roth, chief economist at Wolfe Research LLC, said on Bloomberg TV.
This is the first jobs report that fully reflects Trump’s second term, and the administration’s actions to shrink the government workforce have already contributed to the most job-cut announcements since early in the pandemic, according to separate data out yesterday. Some economists say the United States could lose more than half a million jobs by the end of the year because of the federal job cuts and their spillover effects to the broader economy.
Trump is also deploying tariffs in an effort to bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, and that’s already incentivizing some companies like Apple Inc. and HP Inc. to consider investing more domestically. On the flip side, aluminum producer Alcoa Corp. has warned that the levies could result in 100,000 job losses.
Additionally, any efforts to restrict immigration—or send migrants home—will constrain a major source of job growth in recent years.
“We are going to be reducing government employment and reducing government spending and increasing manufacturing employment,” Kevin Hassett, Trump’s director of the National Economic Council, said on Bloomberg TV Friday.
What Bloomberg economists say...“It appears the shrinkage of the federal government is already beginning to show up in the jobs report. We expect the Fed to cut rates by 75 bps [basis points] this year as the labor market deteriorates.”— Anna Wong, Stuart Paul, Eliza Winger & Estelle Ou |
The jobs report is composed of two surveys—one of businesses, which produces the payrolls figures, and another of households, which publishes unemployment and participation. The household survey also has its own measure of employment, which fell by nearly 600,000, the most in over a year.
The rise in the unemployment rate reflected more people who permanently lost their jobs, and joblessness was up notably among Hispanic people and those without a high school diploma. The number of people working part-time for economic reasons climbed to an almost four-year high, which boosted a broader measure known as the underemployment rate to the highest since 2021.
The labor force participation rate—the share of the population who are working or looking for work—fell to the lowest level in two years, largely among men, according to Friday’s report. The rate for workers of ages 25 to 54, also known as prime-age workers, held steady at 83.5 percent.
Economists are also paying close attention to how labor supply and demand dynamics are impacting wage gains, especially as inflation risks heating up again. The report showed that average hourly earnings increased 0.3 percent from January, after a downwardly revised 0.4 percent gain.
While applications for unemployment benefits are near pre-pandemic levels, they may start ticking up as big-name companies including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Walt Disney Co. have announced sizable workforce reductions in recent days. That, combined with the knock-on effects of the federal government layoffs, may push unemployment even higher in the coming months.
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