Tractor-trailers wait in line for inspection before crossing the Bridge of the Americas International Bridge port of entry on the U.S.–Mexico border in Juarez, Chihuahua state, Mexico, on April 2, 2025. Photographer: Justin Hamel/Bloomberg.

The United States risks being caught between slowing growth and rising prices as a result of the sweeping tariff plans unveiled Wednesday by the Trump administration, according to the president of Apollo Global Management Inc.

The chances of a recession in the world’s biggest economy have risen to 50 percent or higher, Jim Zelter said in a Bloomberg Television interview in New York today. The risk that tariffs accelerate inflation and constrain the Federal Reserve’s ability to stimulate growth by slashing rates has also risen materially, he said. “If I was here six months ago, I would have said a recession in 2025 or 2026 was one-in-five, and now that’s certainly one-in-two, if not higher,” Zelter said.

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