“Consumers are playing a bit of beat-the-clock with tariffs,” Wells Fargo economists Tim Quinlan and Shannon Grein said in a note. “Once again, consumer spending is managing to avoid the gravitational pull of all the negative dynamics that might otherwise hold it back.”

The March data capture spending before Trump announced—and subsequently paused—high tariffs on imports from nations across the world, and before he hiked levies on most Chinese goods to 145 percent. But the report offers insight on consumers’ mindset at a time of high uncertainty about future prices. The rush to buy lifted U.S. auto sales in March to the highest rate in almost four years. Sales across Honda Motor Co.’s brands climbed 13 percent, while Ford Motor Co.’s retail business jumped 19 percent. Hyundai Motor Co. notched its second-best month ever in March, and the strength has carried into April.

“We’ve been doing quite well recently,” José Muñoz, CEO of the Korean automaker, said in an interview. “April started very, very well for us. Many people are thinking ‘I have to buy a car in the next few months, so let’s get it today because the prices may go up.’”

The 25 percent tariffs on auto imports will add substantial costs to vehicle production, with much of that passed along to consumers. A report this month by research firm Anderson Economic Group estimated that the levies could add at least $2,500 in new costs per vehicle at the lower end of the market, and as much as $20,000 for each luxury import. Some automakers have sought to ease buyer anxiety: Hyundai pledged to hold prices steady until June 2, while Ford and Jeep-maker Stellantis NV announced marketing programs offering models at employee pricing.

Jacob Townsend, 32, started looking at new cars earlier this year, partly in anticipation of tariffs and possible changes to tax credits on electric vehicles. He wasn’t in a hurry but saw some good deals on leases and pulled the trigger in mid-March on a 2025 Kia Niro EV. “I wasn’t banking on the fact that things were going to stay favorable for buyers,” Townsend, an accountant in the Indianapolis metro area, said in an interview.

Retailers and manufacturers that rely on imported materials have also been rushing purchases and shipments to avoid paying stiffer prices in coming months. Separate data on Wednesday showed factory output increased a solid 5.1 percent in the first quarter—the most since late 2021—as many customers boosted orders before the brunt of the tariffs hikes take effect.

While the tariff threat is giving a temporary lift to some retailers, the gyrations and the prospect of a trade war with China have led businesses to put investment and hiring on ice. Consumers and businesses alike report getting rattled by the back-and-forth, unable to plan ahead and unsure what to do next. The outlook for hotels and airlines is uncertain, and international airport traffic has slumped as foreign tourists stay away. Still, even as economists increase the odds of the United States falling into recession, the labor market has been holding strong and incomes have continued to rise. Those are the main factors that drive consumer spending, said Robert Frick, corporate economist with Navy Federal Credit Union.

Stephen Stanley, the chief economist at Santander U.S. Capital Markets, said the details of the retail sales report—especially the upward revisions for prior months—will raise his tracking estimate for first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP).

“The consumer got off to a slow start to the year in January and February, but the March retail sales figures indicate that household spending was not as weak in the first quarter as it previously appeared,” Stanley said in a note.

The Atlanta Fed’s latest GDPNow forecast shows first-quarter real personal consumption rising at a solid 1.4 percent pace. Thanks to the strong retail sales report, real GDP is now forecast to drop 0.1 percent, excluding the impact of gold imports, a much improved estimate compared with past weeks.

Michelle Bacharach, the 39-year-old founder of FindMine, an AI-powered outfitting company, said she and her husband plan to purchase all the materials they need for a home renovation in the next 90 days, and both decided to upgrade their phones sooner than they otherwise would have to get ahead of tariffs. While smartphones are currently exempted from some levies, Trump has pledged the reprieve is only temporary. “It’s going to be a lot more inexpensive to do it now than if we wait until Apple raises the price,” she said.

Executives at Walmart Inc., the world’s largest retailer, said last week that they’re confident the company can reach its financial targets this year despite turbulence from tariffs. Walmart sees net sales growing as much as 4 percent in 2025.

And JPMorgan Chase & Co., the biggest U.S. bank, said its debit and credit card sales volumes rose 7 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier. The bank is seeing “a certain amount of front-loading and spending ahead of people expecting price increases from tariffs,” CFO Jeremy Barnum said Friday on a call discussing earnings. “During this transitional period and this elevated uncertainty, you might see some distortions in the data that make it hard to draw larger conclusions.”

Economists must now try to figure out how long the boom in retail sales will last, as well as what comes next. If the March data was buoyed by a rush to buy now to avoid price hikes later, spending is bound to slow in coming months. “With the economy set to cool sharply in the coming months as tariffs take their toll, price-sensitive consumers are poised to become more judicious with their spending,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior economist at EY.

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