If they are right, the ECB will be the first among major central banks to cut rates next year and will deliver the most aggressive easing cycle.

The divide between investors with trillions at stake reflects just how tough monetary policy itself has become, as price pressures remain high and readings of headline and underlying inflation send mixed signals.

Only the Japanese yen has proved stronger than the greenback among G-10 currencies so far this year, with the Norwegian krone, euro, and Swiss franc falling sharply.