Imports surged in Q1 as companies scrambled to secure merchandise ahead of tariffs’ implementation, while the core PCE price index rose more than expected.
Today on Bloomberg’s “The Big Take” podcast, John Authers and David Gura discussed official and unofficial recession indicators and what the state of the economy tells us about what could lie ahead. This is a lightly edited version of their conversation.
“With the economy set to cool sharply in the coming months as tariffs take their toll, price-sensitive consumers are poised to become more judicious with their spending.”
Fed officials must decide this year whether to lower interest rates further to support the economy, or keep them elevated for longer to contain inflation. First they need to determine what proportion of inflation is tariff-related and whether that increase is temporary.
To emerge from this period of uncertainty stronger than ever, use the tariff delay wisely to build cash reserves, strengthen supply chains, and boost organizational resilience.
Various policies from President Trump are creating economic shocks. “If you were to design something that is really quite negative for the economy, this is it.”
“References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high. Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
