At the beginning of the year, corporate treasury departments were assured
that electronic trading was the promised land. Corporates were going to
capture big savings as banks and other sell-side institutions were forced, by the
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simultaneous multiple quotes that e-trading makes possible, to offer
increasingly competitive pricing. Web sites offering corporates e-trading in
everything from foreign exchange to leasing began to spring up.
But as 2001 comes to a close, it's clear that corporates haven't been sold yet
on the advantage of giving up the security of a telephone trade. And it's not all
their fault.
First, in yet another Internet disappointment, trading sites failed to come online
as rapidly as promised and, when they did, failed to provide the
straight-through processing–the fully automated flow of information about a
trade all the way through its settlement–that corporate treasurers have said
can save them time and money. This was particularly true in the largest arena
for e-trading by corporations–foreign exchange–where analysts now
estimate that only about 10% of the $110 billion in daily trading between
corporates and banks is actually done electronically.
But in foreign exchange, it's not just the buy-side that appears to be dragging
its feet. Banks haven't committed wholeheartedly to e-trading for fear it will
cut into revenues from forex trading. Sell-side firms "have been brought in
kicking and screaming," says Dave Potterton, research director for the
e-financial group at Meridien Research in Newton, Mass. "I don't know of
anyone who goes out of their way to compete on price."
Gradual Acceptance
Given this reluctance, it's not surprising that FXall and Atriax, foreign
exchange trading sites launched early last summer by bank consortia, came
online a few months late and then only in stages, making it harder for them to
win corporate acceptance.
According to Potterton and others, the best the market can hope for when it
comes to e-trading by corporates is gradual acceptance. "I don't think the
floodgates will open for a while," says Potterton, who expects just 10% to
15% of buy-side firms to use FX trading sites on any kind of a regular basis
over the next 12 to 18 months.
And then these pioneers will probably not head online for every trade,
restricting e-trading to what Potterton calls "their vanilla trades. For large
transactions or something more exotic, they'll always want to pick up their
phone and get their trader," the Meridien analyst says. Big trades or those
involving exotic currencies require some negotiating, and corporates are more
comfortable doing that by phone. There's also concern that requesting multiple
quotes for a big transaction could cause the market to tick up, raising the price
of the trade.
Given the fear factor, it's probably not surprising that statistics gathered by the
Tower Group in Needham, Mass., suggest that the biggest users of online
trading sites thus far aren't corporates but rather institutional investors. Tower
estimates forex e-trading totaled $11 billion a day in August–$5.75 billion
of
which is handled by State Street's FX Connect platform for institutional
investors, the oldest of the platforms offering e-trading via a private network
since 1996.
Tower estimates $3.5 billion of trading occurred on the 100 or so single-bank
platforms. Of the remaining volume, $1.35 billion occurred on Currenex, a
third-party platform that has been able to offer the straight-through processing
that many corporates crave to some of its corporate clients. And despite
the
fact that Currenex charges both buy-side and sell-side, the prospect of
straight-through trading has allowed it to make inroads with
corporates. Bob Iati, an analyst at Tower Group, estimates that 70% of Currenex's volume
reflects corporate business and 30% comes from fund companies.
The Royal Dutch/Shell Group, for example, chose to do its forex transactions
on Currenex. Shell also went so far as to invest $11.5 million in Currenex,
giving it an ownership stake of less than 10%. Tom
Buschman, development manager for Shell's Treasury Center, says the company's goal in trading
forex
online, "first and foremost, is to improve operations: more efficiency from
straight-through processing, as well as limitation of errors."
Straight-through processing frees back-office personnel from mindless tasks
like rekeying data and transferring information from one system to another,
giving them time to look for errors, Buschman says. "When you automate the
processes around it, you will have much more time to focus on the trade
itself
and [on] doing the proper trade."
Underwhelming Volumes
And mistakes can be expensive. If a firm sells dollars and buys euros when it
meant to do the opposite and a couple of hours elapse before it realizes the
mistake, "the price may already have moved 1%," Buschman says. "You may
have lost 1% of the amount you were trading." Such mistakes are fairly
easy to make, he says, but electronic trading systems provide improved controls and
can be programmed to enforce credit limits and other trading
standards.
The two multibank Web sites that garnered so much attention last summer,
Atriax and FXall, aren't doing much business yet, according to Tower's
statistics. These show Atriax's flows at just $220 million a day in August and
FXall's at $200 million. "In the short time they've been live, FXall and
Atriax
have both disappointed," Iati says. "You talk to some people and they'll tell
you they're not terribly easy to use."
The low volumes are not entirely attributable to disenchantment with online
trading. Iati also notes that platforms are vying for customers at a point when
overall forex volume is declining. Iati estimates that total daily forex flows
have fallen with the economy to $1.1 trillion from $1.5 trillion.
But while progress has been slow, few in the marketplace doubt the
inevitability of electronic bank-to-corporate FX trading. Iati is forecasting that
as much as 37% of bank-to-corporate forex trades will be done electronically
by the end of 2002 and 66% by the end of 2003.
Since foreign exchange is the sector where e-trading has come the furthest,
market participants say they'll watch what happens there for clues to how
e-trading is likely to develop in other markets. "The other electronic trading
capabilities, especially the newer ones such as leasing, will only be successful
if FX establishes itself more firmly," says Lyndon Harvey, president of
e-commerce at Selkirk Financial, the Vancouver-based Treasury workstation
provider.
STP: The Treasurer's Edge
So Treasury workstation vendors like Selkirk are doing everything they can to
make sure the e-trade environment is a friendly one for corporate
treasuries.
Given corporations' interest in achieving straight-through processing, a number
of workstation vendors are working with forex trading platforms to achieve it.
For example, both Integrity and Trema are working with Currenex to provide
straight-through processing.
Selkirk, too, is doing similar development work, and Harvey says the vendor is
close to announcing deals with foreign exchange platforms. "We've been
in
discussions with the major trading hubs for some time," he says.
SunGard, the biggest provider of workstations, is taking a different approach: It
put together its own multidealer platform, STN Treasury, to provide
trading in
foreign exchange, money-market securities and derivatives. The platform
offers straight-through processing for those with SunGard
workstations. Ben
Auld, STN Treasury's director of marketing, says several banks are
participating in the site's current beta testing, which has gone
"very well." The
platform will launch this fall, he says.
Foreign exchange, however, is far from the only marketplace in which
electronic trading was slated to flourish. E-trading was also supposed to
revolutionize the bond market by allowing corporations to sell debt directly to
investors, eliminating or at least reducing Wall Street's traditional role as
underwriter. Here, too, the level of activity never lived up to initial enthusiasm.
Since an inaugural Dow Chemical bond issuance of $300 million in the fall
of
2000, only Ford Motor Credit has followed up online with a $750 million,
three-year issue in March 2001. Two systems designed for corporate bond
auctions, W.R. Hambrecht's OpenBook.com and Bear Stearns' DAISS
system, remain open for business.
Where electronic debt issuance has taken root is at the short end of the
fixed-income market. Here, corporations sell their commercial paper (CP)
directly to investors on Bloomberg and cpmarket.com. Bloomberg says that
CP trading is occurring at an annualized rate of more than $8 trillion on its
Auto-Ex system, which offers both directly issued and dealer-placed CP.
CPmarket.com, which offers only directly issued CP, says $100 billion has
traded on its platform since its June 2000 launch.
There has been an explosion this year in the number of platforms offering
trading in very short-term corporate debt, known as money market securities,
as well as institutional money funds. Market professionals say processing
efficiency is also a factor driving online trading in this area.
Among the money fund sites are: The Bank of New York's
MoneyFundsDIRECT, Goldman Sachs Asset Management's Global Cash
Services, SEI's TreasuryPoint and, the latest entrant, MoneyFund Trader,
launched by Pittsburgh-based Mid-Atlantic Capital Group in September.
Corporates looking for money-market securities can buy dealer-placed CP on
bond platform TradeWeb as well as Bloomberg and cpmarket.com.
TradeWeb
launched its CP product in August and averages $15 billion to $20 billion a day
in trades. Reuters Liquid Markets plans to offer money-market trading when it
launches next year.
Despite the less than overwhelming acceptance of online trading by
corporations, proponents still assert that e-trading's toeholds in forex and debt
markets will eventually allow it to expand into the esoteric domains of
derivatives, leasing and trade finance. But the terrain is rugged: these areas
are less liquid, and developing sufficient volume will be difficult. Transactions
are also less uniform and harder to move online.
A number of the foreign exchange platforms either provide or plan to provide
forex derivatives. But the platforms dealing with other types of derivatives
so
far are aimed at market participants like banks and brokerages, rather than
corporations. Creditex and CreditTrade, for example, provide trading in
credit
derivatives, and SwapsWire, which is expected to launch later this year, will
focus on interest-rate swaps.
New Frontiers
In the leasing market, the platforms are sponsored by third parties. Companies
can use the Pure Markets (www.puremarkets.com) site to put out
requests for
proposals for lease financing, and analyze the responses. In the last year, $1
billion of transactions have been posted on the platform.
LeasingX
(www.leasingx.com) sets up private auction sites that equipment vendors can
provide to customers who want to arrange lease financing.
LeaseTrading
(www.leasetrading.com) is an online secondary market where companies can
dispose of leases when they no longer need the equipment.
Trade finance is another potential e-trade target, but one with very little
standardization. "Each asset is a pile of documentation that describes a
specific import or export transaction," said Neal Katkov, an analyst at
Boston-based Celent Communications.
Portals, such as bolero.net and BizCurrency.com, aim to organize that pile. For
example, "bolero is trying to set up new online equivalents of trade
documentation, which will incorporate standards," Katkov says. He says
trading platforms for these instruments, like ITFex (www.itfex.com) and
LTPtrade (www.ltptrade.net), won't attract a wide audience until some
standardization is achieved.
Rick Striano, senior vice president of New York-based ITFex, says financial
institutions dominate secondary trading in trade instruments. But
corporations
could benefit from easy access to the secondary market because liquidating
trade obligations is one approach to reducing exposure to
foreign risk as well
as a way of cutting down on receivables, he says.
One trade finance platform, LCconnect (www.lconnect.com), looks a lot like
the foreign exchange platforms. Corporations seeking letters of credit can
use
LCconnect to solicit bids from a number of banks.
The electronic trading universe is crowded these days with platforms backed
by single banks, platforms backed by groups of banks and platforms run by
third parties. There's an assumption that, as Web sites compete for market
share, those that allow users to trade with more than one bank or brokerage
will have the advantage, since the ability to get a number of quotes
simultaneously is seen as a big pluses of electronic trading. Yet, according to
an April survey by the Association of Financial Professionals, 47% of financial
professionals prefer to use Internet sites operated by a single financial
institution for securities trades.
"Mid-tier and smaller corporations" that need more support from their banks
are likely to stick with single-bank platforms, says Celent analyst Fritz
McCormick. But if all a company is doing is talking to bankers via email
instead of by telephone, one could reasonably ask: Why not just call? "People
will be inclined to return to the telephone," says Shell's Buschman, "unless
they get really better execution" electronically. And that day hasn't arrived
yet.
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