Treasurers are peering farther into the future when it comes to credit. Take for example this unidentified treasurer's question to a banking panel at the recent Association for Financial Professionals annual meeting in San Francisco, as reported by Bruce Lynn, managing partner of the Financial Executives Consulting Group. The question: "I have a $1 billion revolver coming due in 2013. My pricing today is Libor plus 75 basis points. My banks will extend my loan at Libor plus 300. What should I do?" The bankers' answers: Make sure the $1 billion is still needed and cut back, if possible; go to the bond market for longer term money; and expect to pay more when you do renew, says Lynn.
While a 2013 maturity date seems a comfortable timeline, treasurers are wondering what to do about credit facilities that still have a year or two or even three to run. Normally, you don't renegotiate to add two or three percentage points to your spread and double or triple your fees, but these are not normal times. Over the next three years, massive amounts of bank credit will run out.
"There is $600 billion of corporate debt maturing in 2010, $700 billion in 2011 and almost $1 trillion in 2012. That's well over $2 trillion," notes Jim Simpson, a Stamford, Conn.-based consultant and co-founder of Debt Compliance Services. "So there is concern about crowding out in the market, particularly with fewer bank lenders and tighter credit standards." (See graph on Page 38.) That calendar poses a dilemma, Simpson explains: Do treasurers wait until a few months before their loan agreement is due to expire, enjoying the good rates they locked in during happier times but taking a chance that they might get shut out? Or do they try to beat the crowd and renegotiate a deal that will take them past the bubble, knowing it will mean paying more and agreeing to more onerous conditions than their current deal?
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