Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras won four more months to sell his policy program to creditors while keeping his party at home on board, as euro-area finance chiefs deferred a showdown over the nation's future in the currency bloc.
Greek stocks and bonds surged on Tuesday as finance ministers approved a bailout extension after the government pledged to revamp tax collection, consolidate pension funds and maintain sales of state-owned assets. The accord paves the way for the European Central Bank (ECB) to continue support of Greek banks, while buying time for the euro area's most indebted state to convince creditor institutions it will deliver.
“Ceasefire, but no peace agreement,” Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING Diba in Frankfurt, said of the deal in an email. “The general question of how to solve the unsustainability of Greek debt has been postponed, not solved.”
As part of Tuesday's decision, the European Commission, the ECB, and the International Monetary Fund all signaled their support for Greece's commitments. IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde and ECB President Mario Draghi both warned that the Greek measures still need to be scrutinized.
The agreement opens a fresh chapter in the saga of Greece and the euro area, which together—and sometimes at odds—have been battling since 2010 over preserving the currency union and keeping Greece afloat.
After two bailouts pledging 240 billion euros (US$272 billion) and the biggest debt restructuring in history, Greece remains short of cash and cut off from financial markets, with the threat of wider contagion ever present.
The deal gives Greece until April to refine the details and show the finance ministers how they follow through. Greece can't tap more bailout funds, including the next tranche of about 7 billion euros, unless it passes the authorities' review.
“This list is sufficiently comprehensive to be a valid starting point,” European Commission Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis and Economic Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said in a letter to Dutch Finance Minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, who chairs meetings of his euro-area counterparts. “Determined and swift implementation of reform commitments will be key for a successful conclusion of the review.”
'Not Specific'
Lagarde said in her own letter to Dijsselbloem that the policies are “generally not specific” and don't give “clear assurances” the government intended to undertake key reforms. Draghi wrote that the ECB needs to assess whether legislation will be replaced by “measures of equal or better quality.”
Greek stocks rallied, with the benchmark Athens Stock Exchange rising 9.3 percent. Greek bonds also rose, as yields on three-year bonds fell 254 basis points to 12.52 percent. The euro was down 0.1 percent at $1.1325 at 5 p.m. Athens time.
Attention now turns to those national parliaments that must give their assent to any change to the terms of euro-region bailouts. German lawmakers will vote on Feb. 27, Michael Grosse-Broemer, the parliamentary whip for Chancellor Angela Merkel's bloc, told reporters in Berlin on Tuesday. The Finnish government said in a statement on its website that the Greek list was comprehensive enough to grant the extension.
This next stage will be yet another key moment for Greece. A sizeable debt repayment is due in June, which has become the next deadline for securing follow-on financing. Tsipras's government has said it will work with the EU institutions on what kind of support arrangement comes next.
“If the past three weeks were seen as difficult, the next three to four months are going to be a major challenge, a major learning process for all parties,” Jens Bastian, an independent financial analyst at Macropolis.gr and former member of the European Commission's Greek task force, said in a Bloomberg TV interview.
Tsipras faces a tough battle within the ranks of his Syriza party. Satisfying this constituency while working with euro-area counterparts like German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble will be a formidable task, Bastian said. Communicating this to a domestic audience is “where the heart of the problem will rest in the coming weeks,” he said.
While today's decision won't lead to immediate new aid payments, it may give some breathing room for Greece's financial system, reeling from the departure of more than 20 billion euros in deposits since snap elections catapulted Syriza to power last month.
As uncertainty mounted over whether the bailout would expire at the end of February as scheduled, the ECB on Feb. 4 lifted its waiver that had allowed junk-rated Greek collateral to be accepted under the central bank's rules.
The ECB is likely to wait until at least its March 5 monetary-policy meeting before it restores its waiver on collateral quality for Greek banks. The Frankfurt-based central bank has signaled it needs to be confident the extended program will succeed before making the change.
–With assistance from Fred Pals in Amsterdam, Nikos Chrysoloras and Paul Tugwell in Athens, Karl Stagno Navarra and Jonathan Stearns in Brussels, Radoslav Tomek in Bratislava, Slovakia, Birgit Jennen, Rainer Buergin and Brian Parkin in Berlin, Kasper Viita in Helsinki, and Jeff Black in Frankfurt.
Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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