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The non-nullable type is 'String' within parent type 'Content'","path":["readnext","contents",4,"uri"],"extensions":{"classification":"NullValueInNonNullableField"}}],"data":{"articleData":{"uri":"/2016/08/25/treasury-yield-curve-is-flattest-since-2007/","canonicalUrl":"https://www.treasuryandrisk.com/2016/08/25/treasury-yield-curve-is-flattest-since-2007/","generatedId":"hee45ejdh","naturalId":"blogAndPostId/blog/post/411-1604","type":"ARTICLE","postFormat":null,"kickerPresentedBy":null,"breadcrumb":[],"presentedBy":"","title":"Treasury Yield Curve Is Flattest Since 2007","readtime":"3","timeToRead":"3 minute","prettyModified":"","prettyDateTime":"August 25, 2016 at 12:16 AM","needToKnow":[],"byline":"Andrea Wong and Anchalee Worrachate, Bloomberg","showDisclaimer":true,"authors":[{"name":"Andrea Wong","description":"","imageLarge":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/f16d6fc2845f417ea0e93a3f2b6cd37d?s=136&d=mm&r=g","webUrl":"/author/profile/andrea-wong/"},{"name":"Anchalee Worrachate, Bloomberg","description":"","imageLarge":"https://secure.gravatar.com/avatar/f16d6fc2845f417ea0e93a3f2b6cd37d?s=136&d=mm&r=g","webUrl":"/author/profile/anchalee-worrachate-bloomberg/"}],"publication":"Treasury and Risk","kicker":"News","kickerNode":[{"name":"News","slug":"news-kicker","uri":"/news/","sectionName":"News"}],"prettyDate":"August 25, 2016","pubDate":"2016-08-25 00:16:00:000","modifiedDate":"","isDownload":"false","primaryCategory":{"channelName":"","sectionName":"","name":"","uri":"","slug":"","channelUri":""},"tags":[],"image":{"uri":"","width":"","height":"","alt":""},"embed1":"","embed2":"","summary":"As more investors begin to think interest rates will rise this year, yield is rising on short-dated Treasury notes.","categories":[{"name":"Cash Management","uri":"/cash-management/","channelName":"Cash Management"},{"name":"Kicker","uri":"///","channelName":"Kicker"},{"name":"News","uri":"/news/","channelName":"Kicker"}],"bodyArray":["<p>Treasury two-year notes are the cheapest relative to 30-year bonds since the end of 2007, as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve officials spur speculation the central bank will increase interest rates this year. [See Figure 1, below.]</p>","<p>The yield on the shorter-maturity debt, which is more sensitive to the outlook for monetary policy, rose for a third day after Fed Bank of Kansas City President Esther George said labor-market gains and rising inflation should prompt higher interest rates. <a href=\"https://www.treasuryandrisk.com/2016/08/26/yellen-says-case-for-rate-hikes-has-strengthened/\">Chair Janet Yellen speaks Friday</a> at an annual symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.</p>","<p>Fed officials “are trying to jawbone up rates, especially inflation expectations,” said George Goncalves, head of U.S. interest-rates research at Nomura Securities, one of 23 primary dealers that trade with the central bank. “Rates could move a little higher tomorrow. Not because of expectations of hikes, but more about 'Hey, the Fed means business.'”</p>","<div class=\"paywall-content\"><p><img style=\"margin-left: auto;margin-right: auto\" src=\"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/cdn-cgi/image/format=auto,fit=contain/http://media.treasuryandrisk.com/treasuryandrisk/article/2016/08/26/082516-figure-1.png\" alt=\"\"/></p>","<p><p>History suggests that a Fed rate increase benefits longer-maturity bonds more than their short-dated counterparts. Every time the Fed has raised rates over the past four decades, betting that longer-term Treasuries would outperform short-term notes has proved to be a winner, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Higher rates helped stem inflation and keep economic growth from overheating.</p>","<p>The Treasury two-year note yield rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 0.79 percent as of 5 p.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. That's the highest closing level since June 6. The price of the 0.75 percent security due in August 2018 was 99 29/32.</p>","<p>The extra yield investors demand to hold 30-year bonds instead of two-year notes contracted to about 147 basis points, making that measure of the yield curve the flattest on a closing-price basis since December 2007. Bob Michele, New York-based chief investment officer at JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co.'s asset-management unit, which has $1.7 trillion under management, sees it flattening further.</p>","<p>“Every steepening of the curve will be met by buying,” Michele said on Bloomberg Television. “We're going a whole lot flatter. I think we're going through 100.”</p>","<p>The probability of a rate increase by September was 32 percent, compared with an 18 percent chance seen at the start of the month, according to data compiled by Bloomberg from fed fund futures. Traders see about a 57 percent chance of a move this year. The odds have risen after Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer joined the presidents of the New York and San Francisco branches in signaling a move in 2016 was still under consideration.</p><h3 xmlns:i=\"incisive-repository\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\"> </h3><h3 xmlns:i=\"incisive-repository\" xmlns=\"http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml\">Treasury Auctions</h3><p>Economic data on Thursday showed orders for U.S. business equipment climbed for a second month in July, the first back-to-back advance since early 2015. Steadier orders would mark an improvement in demand for capital spending that Fed policy makers have described as “soft.”</p>","<p>A gauge of demand fell to the lowest since February at a $28 billion auction of seven-year notes Thursday. The decline in buyer interest comes after a $34 billion five-year debt sale Wednesday saw the greatest demand on record from indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks and mutual funds. Demand at a $26 billion two-year note auction on Aug. 23 was the highest since May.</p>","<p>Copyright 2018 Bloomberg. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.</p></div>"],"slides":[],"video":null},"articlePackages":[],"youmightlike":[{"uri":"/2024/11/01/u-s-payrolls-increase-by-just-12000-in-october/","title":"U.S. Payrolls Increase by Just 12,000 in October","byline":"Molly Smith","prettyDate":"November 01, 2024","readtime":"6","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/11/110124_Bloomberg_Job-fair.jpg","width":"1200","height":"800"},"summary":"This is the slowest pace of hiring in the United States since 2020, but the unemployment rate remained low, as numbers were distorted by hurricanes and a major strike at Boeing."},{"uri":"/2024/11/01/fed-on-track-for-another-rate-cut/","title":"Fed on Track for Another Rate Cut","byline":"Jonnelle Marte","prettyDate":"November 01, 2024","readtime":"3","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/08/081624_Bloomberg_Fed.jpg","width":"1200","height":"800"},"summary":"Hurricanes and the Boeing strike likely drove payrolls lower in October, but the weak employment report keeps officials on track to reduce interest rates by a quarter point next week."},{"uri":"/2024/10/31/key-u-s-inflation-gauge-picks-up/","title":"Key U.S. Inflation Gauge Picks Up","byline":"Matthew Boesler","prettyDate":"October 31, 2024","readtime":"4","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/10/103124_Bloomberg_Shoppers.jpg","width":"1200","height":"797"},"summary":"The spending report bolsters the case for a slower pace of interest rate cuts following last month's outsized reduction."},{"uri":"/2024/10/30/u-s-economy-expands-at-2-8-rate/","title":"U.S. Economy Expands at 2.8% Rate","byline":"Matthew Boesler","prettyDate":"October 30, 2024","readtime":"4","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/10/103024_Bloomberg_Grocery-shopping.jpg","width":"1200","height":"800"},"summary":"GDP rose by more than 2.5% for a sixth consecutive quarter, \"the longest stretch of such solid growth since 2006.\""},{"uri":"/2024/10/29/lost-pension-plan-its-a-hot-button-issue-for-striking-boeing-workers-411-32841/","title":"Lost Pension Plan: A Hot-Button Issue for Striking Workers","byline":"Lynn Cavanaugh","prettyDate":"October 29, 2024","readtime":"2","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/10/Boeing-Strike.jpg","width":"620","height":"372"},"summary":"Boeing union workers, in their seventh week of a strike, are seeking higher wages along with the restoration of the company's pension plan, which has been frozen since 2014."},{"uri":"/2024/10/24/vanguard-sticks-to-higher-quality-debt-playbook/","title":"Vanguard Sticks to Higher-Quality Debt 'Playbook'","byline":"Caleb Mutua","prettyDate":"October 24, 2024","readtime":"2","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/10/102424_Bloomberg_Vanguard.jpg","width":"1200","height":"800"},"summary":"The world's second-largest asset manager expects the U.S. economy to slow to below-trend growth, but to avoid a recession."}],"readnext":{"contents":[{"uri":"/2024/11/01/how-to-improve-ebitda-by-6-to-7-figures-annually/","title":"How To Improve EBITDA by 6 to 7 Figures Annually","byline":"Sponsored by LevelFunded Health","summary":"Learn how to reduce costs without sacrificing employee benefit levels and about recent updates around employer fiduciary duty through the lens of the DOL and ERISA.","prettyDate":"November 01, 2024","kicker":"","image":{"uri":"","width":"","height":""},"breadcrumb":[],"primaryCategory":{"name":"","uri":"","channelName":"","channelUri":""}},{"uri":"/2024/10/31/trump-vs-harris-a-clash-of-visions-on-trade-policy/","title":"Trump vs. Harris: A Clash of Visions on Trade Policy","byline":"Ronald Baumgarten, Jr., Tung Nguyen & James Perry","summary":"Both candidates want to promote U.S. jobs and investment at home, but they disagree on how to do so: tariffs versus economic subsidization.","prettyDate":"October 31, 2024","kicker":"Analysis","image":{"uri":"https://images.treasuryandrisk.com/contrib/content/uploads/sites/411/2024/10/2018-07-05-China-USA-fight.png","width":"616","height":"375"},"breadcrumb":[],"primaryCategory":{"name":"","uri":"","channelName":"","channelUri":""}},{"uri":"/2021/10/13/understanding-the-cost-of-hedging/","title":"Understanding the Cost of Hedging","byline":"Amol Dhargalkar","summary":"Many companies take a backward approach to valuing derivatives hedges. 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