Donald Trump and the U.S. Federal Reserve are heading for a collision that will almost certainly result in a stronger dollar, two leading economists said.
"I see a likelihood for a major clash developing in the next year, year and half, between the Trump administration's desire to go for 3 to 4 percent growth and the growing attention of the Fed to emerging inflation in their own 2 percent mandate," Northwestern University's Robert J. Gordon told a conference in Paris Monday. Barry Eichengreen of the University of California Berkeley sees "double-digit" dollar appreciation as a possible consequence of Trump's fiscal stimulus, tax reform and protectionist trade policy.
The president-elect's economic goals came into the spotlight at a Bank of France-organized conference on "secular stagnation" — the theory that advanced economies are headed for a long period of sluggish growth and stagnant productivity. The theory stands in contrast to Trump's promise to jump-start U.S. economic growth with a mix of infrastructure spending, tax cuts and repatriating jobs.
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