The mantra within the British government as it prepares to hammer out the terms of its break-up with the European Union is that no deal is better than a bad deal.

Walking away with no regime for 230 billion pounds ($287 billion) of annual exports to the bloc and the 3.3 million Europeans in the U.K would be “perfectly OK,” says Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson. Not “frightening” at all, says Brexit czar David Davis.

But analysts are painting an entirely different picture of an outcome they view as increasingly plausible: U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May balking at the EU's demands or giving up on getting the sweeping trade accord she wants. And a collapse in the two-year talks, which May is set to trigger next week, would unleash costs and regulations that stand to damage Britain far more than the EU.