Signs are pointing to a looming slowdown in global trade growth, according to Morgan Stanley.
Each component of the bank's proprietary global trade leading indicator — except the U.S. dollar — declined in April to mark back-to-back drops for the index, which is used to forecast real activity with a one-month lead.
“Business sentiment, crude oil, commodity prices and Baltic Dry Index shipping rates all pulled the index lower,” said a team led by economist Elga Bartsch. “If [the] Morgan Stanley global trade leading indicator declines three times in a row, we will likely have established a new downtrend in global merchandise trade dynamics.”
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