“Liquidity in on-the-run bonds [$1 billion-plus deals sold in the past year] has improved, but off-the-run paper [smaller in size and issued more than two years ago] has become virtually untradeable.”
UBS expects the premium investors require over U.S. Treasuries rates to reach 160–170 bps for high-grade debt and 600–650 bps for junk debt by midyear.
Thanks to good trades prior to M&A, credit downgrades, and defaults, the insurers in the top quintile for dealer-network size achieved about 0.84 percentage point higher annual returns on corporate bonds, according to a recent study.
“We increasingly view a large-scale pullback in spending driven by uncertainty about tariffs, DOGE layoffs, and weakness in equities as a non-trivial tail risk.”
“Issuers are taking advantage of calm markets, low volatility, and tight spreads before Trump’s tariffs might spoil the party. ... For a record amount of issuance, there must also be a large amount of investors ready to put money at work. This is indeed the case.”