In his first term, Trump bashed the Fed for allowing higher interest rates in the U.S. vs. Europe to drive up the dollar and hurt exports. Next year will likely bring more of the same, as the U.S. economy remains considerably stronger, meaning rates here will likely fall more slowly than in the Eurozone.
Chicago Federal Reserve President Austan Goolsbee says that although the Fed will take its time reducing interest rates, the end result will be much lower rates if inflation stays near the Fed’s target.
At future meetings, FOMC policymakers will consider "additional adjustments" to rates based on "incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks."
If officials could know with confidence where the neutral rate of interest lay, they could just move there and declare victory. But it's not that simple.
"The predominant risk at this point is that the softening in the labor market gains momentum and the economy tips into an unnecessary and unwanted recession."
"If inflation started to tick back down or we saw some marked weakening in the labor market, then that might cause us to cut back on interest rates. Or, if we get convinced that inflation is entrenched at 3 percent and we need to go higher, we will do that."