Policymakers don’t expect to reach their 2% inflation goal until 2027, so “from here on out, it is going to be much harder to get rate cuts without much further improvement on inflation.”
In the Fed’s semi-annual report on U.S. financial stability, the second- and third-ranked concerns were escalating tensions in the Middle East and policy uncertainty.
If officials could know with confidence where the neutral rate of interest lay, they could just move there and declare victory. But it's not that simple.
"The vast majority observed that, if the data continued to come in about as expected, it would likely be appropriate to ease policy at the next meeting."
"The predominant risk at this point is that the softening in the labor market gains momentum and the economy tips into an unnecessary and unwanted recession."
Although U.S. interest rates are sitting at 23-year highs, the pockets of pain they are causing are nothing like the systemic problems that so often wrecked expansions in the past.