Even as relative calm has returned in recent days, the likelihood of further shakeouts in currencies and equities, and simmering economic risks, support the case for bonds.
"Investors still have faith that the dollar itself, regardless of the state of the actual government, will continue to be the global currency of choice and keep value in a fraught political situation."
Quantitative tightening is "an underappreciated risk" that might keep bond yields higher for longer. Auctions of 10- and 30-year Treasuries were poorly received this month, and supply will keep increasing, thanks to the widening budget deficit.
Yields on 10-year and 30-year Treasuries reached their highest since 2007, extending yield curve steepening which has been a key dynamic of the past month's abrupt selloff.