Chinese data indicates that the nominal value of exports to the U.S. has grown, even as U.S. data shows imports from China falling. This discrepancy increases questions around the impacts of the recently enacted 10% tariff.
Economists also see a 25% chance of recession in the next 12 months—up from January and the first increase in two years, but well below the 65% chance estimated in the first half of 2023.
Unemployment numbers are likely to rise soon. The lost positions will primarily be well-paid roles held by highly educated workers, which will spill over to consumer-facing industries and housing, pushing Washington, D.C., into a mild recession by the summer.
A Texas judge has ruled that retirement fund managers may consider environmental, social, and corporate governance factors when choosing investment funds.