"This doesn't challenge the idea we're still in an expansion, but it does signal we should expect monthly job growth to be more muted and put extra pressure on the Fed to cut rates."

Several big banks are projecting large negative revisions to Q1 jobs numbers, suggesting the labor market has been cooling for longer—and perhaps more dramatically—than originally thought.

The report showcases a consumer who is holding up despite higher borrowing costs, a cooling labor market, and an uncertain economic outlook.

A September rate cut by the Federal Reserve seems all but assured.

Initial claims fell by 17,000 last week, in part because of a drop in Michigan, Missouri, and Texas, states that had registered large increases in unemployment applications in prior weeks.

Unemployment is close to triggering a recession indicator that has a perfect track record over the last half-century.

Deterioration in the labor market cements the Fed's path to interest rate cuts in September.

The Federal Reserve's preferred measure of underlying U.S. inflation rose at a tame pace in June and consumer spending remained healthy—two encouraging…