U.S. consumers are the most pessimistic they’ve been since early 2021, even as “hard data” still indicates a solid economy.

“References to inflation and prices in general continue to rank high. Most notably, comments on the current administration and its policies dominated the responses.”

Unemployment numbers are likely to rise soon. The lost positions will primarily be well-paid roles held by highly educated workers, which will spill over to consumer-facing industries and housing, pushing Washington, D.C., into a mild recession by the summer.

Manufacturing has recently showed signs of stabilizing, but producers face headwinds including a stronger dollar that dampens foreign demand for U.S. exports.

Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warns that lessons from the pandemic suggest tariffs might become inflationary by creating supply-side disruptions.

Here's some context on his most notable comments about his economic policies.

Thanks to an aircraft machinists strike, the Gulf Coast hurricanes, and the Fed's restrictive monetary policy, output fell by 0.3%, after rising 0.3% in August.

Even with the pickup, the three-month average eased to 119,000, one of the lowest levels since 2020.