Unemployment numbers are likely to rise soon. The lost positions will primarily be well-paid roles held by highly educated workers, which will spill over to consumer-facing industries and housing, pushing Washington, D.C., into a mild recession by the summer.
Manufacturing has recently showed signs of stabilizing, but producers face headwinds including a stronger dollar that dampens foreign demand for U.S. exports.
Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago President Austan Goolsbee warns that lessons from the pandemic suggest tariffs might become inflationary by creating supply-side disruptions.
Thanks to an aircraft machinists strike, the Gulf Coast hurricanes, and the Fed's restrictive monetary policy, output fell by 0.3%, after rising 0.3% in August.
New home construction and manufacturing came in softer than expected, while retail sales fell and underlying inflation took its first step down in six months.
The second-straight increase in core capital goods orders points to stabilization in equipment investment, which has been a drag on GDP in recent quarters.